Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

Tin Man · Jun 25, 2017

bhtooefr said:
In your grid region, NWPP...

36.2% of the grid is coal-powered as of 2014. 0.2% is oil, 11.9% is gas, and 0.2% is other fossil fuels, for a total of 48.5% of your power coming from fossil fuels.

Of the remaining power, 2.8% is nuclear, and then the rest is either the 0.1% unknown sources, or the 48.5% renewable portion (39.7% hydro, 1.1% biomass combustion, 6.7% wind, and 1.0% geothermal). Yes, I know that adds up to 99.9%, I suspect rounding errors.

This unfortunately, like many environmentalist arguments, doesn't look at the advanced Math of electricity generation or the engineering of "backup generator" support needed from fossil fuel in generating electricity.

Assuming that the general use of electricity does follow the above percentages, adding anything to the grid, especially night charging, will require the added use of fossil fuel generating capacity. Our grid does not store solar or other renewable electricity for use during peak or night hours, as far as I understand it.

So yes, EV's are fossil fuel users more than general use electricity. It takes a bit of Math to figure that out.

Cheers.

TM

bhtooefr · Jun 25, 2017

There's a few things going on there.

In many areas, at night, providers are desperate to have a consumer for their base load power to avoid throttling those plants back (which is costly). That's usually fossil fueled, nuclear, or hydro, for what it's worth.

Plus, wind power actually increases at night, typically, so that's a renewable that's more available, and can be wasted because of the base load plants needing load at the same time. Increasing night load on the grid will make better use of that resource.

And then, there's other charging models that could be used - for instance, workplace charging would allow EVs to charge at solar peaks, to make the best use of that resource.

Finally, grid storage is something that's being investigated by utilities, partially to smooth out spikes created by renewables on the grid, and partially to smooth out the natural demand spikes and dips - if you can charge your batteries, or pump water up to a reservoir, during times where you're scrambling to find load for your base load plants, you can then use that stored energy for later, to avoid firing up an inefficient peaker plant during the day.

turbobrick240 · Jun 25, 2017

Yeah, that's a weak argument- no advanced math needed. And renewable energy can absolutely be stored for later use. Hydroelectric dams have been doing just that for over one hundred years.

CraziFuzzy · Jun 25, 2017

There are other load shaping scehemes being deployed as well. Many large facilities (mostly hospital and university campuses) have built thermal storage systems, typically very large stratified chilled water storage tanks, which allow them to run their chillers at night, and only run pumps during the day to supply the chilled water to the loads. This has a few advantages. With the chillers only running at night, it is using the 'surplus' electrical generation which as already discussed is much cheaper. Additionally, the chillers are doing most of their work at night when it is cooler outside, making the overall kW/ton considerably lower as well.
There are even some areas that have, or are investigating, doing so over a district area, where they'd have a large chiller plant with storage, and 'sell' the chilled water to the customers in the area, instead of individual air conditioning systems.

This system fully supports demand response as well, with no actual service impact, since the chillers can be brought up and taken off line as the grid demands, since their load is decoupled from them.

I've actually investigated installing building a 3,000 gallon storage tank for my home, to be able to shift my cooling to nighttime hours. SCE will finally be forcing everyone to ToU metering in the next couple years, so anyone who can shift their loads will make out.

turbobrick240 · Jun 25, 2017

I plan to add >1000 gallons of insulated thermal storage in my basement when I get a wood gasification boiler. Of course, I will be storing heated rather than cooled water. It will be quite simple to add electric heating elements if I want to store excess heat energy from PV panels at some point.

bhtooefr · Jun 25, 2017

You've then got borehole thermal energy storage, for heating the ground in the summer with surplus solar (this community actually uses solar thermal panels, not solar electric), and then the stored energy is available for heating in winter.

Oilerlord · Jun 25, 2017

turbocharged798 said:
The problems still exist...EV is still 50% fossil fuel powered, and you also have line losses which can be significant.

Not saying EVs are great for urban drivers(which would help pollution in the cities) but for road warriors, its never going to happen.

Meanwhile my 18 year old oil burner is still going strong and costs me $20 a week for my 400 mile/week commute. You can buy a LOT of diesel for a cost of a EV battery.

We can stipulate that:

- It requires fossil fuels to build any car
- Some grids are cleaner / use more fossil fuels than others
- You can buy a lot of diesel for the cost of an EV battery

Environmentally, you are doing more for Mother Earth driving one fuel efficient car for a long time than the person that leases a new car every 3 years. As I mentioned earlier, the "revolutionaries" tend to ignore the fossil fuels burned (and CO2 released) during the manufacturing process.

However, we all have our own definition of "road warrior". Does 400 miles per week / 20,000 miles per year rule out the use of an EV? For sure, some 80 mile EV's may a problem with that, but a 238 mile Chevy Bolt could easily handle those commutes.

I did mention that the cost of replacement batteries is the "elephant in the room" but while the cost of an EV battery is significant, he and I will likely never replace them. We'll just keep driving our EV's for 8+ years (or longer) and accept degradation in range. We'll probably spend less on electricity in 10 years than you'll spend in 1 year in diesel. I doubt we'll be able to drive 18 years on one battery, but cost wise, it doesn't matter. We'll just buy another cheap, used EV.

Factor in engine-related maintenance costs, and your 18 year old car costs a lot more to operate than our EV's (or our own TDI's) do. I've worked the math six ways from Sunday - no way, no how can any gasoline or diesel car match the low operating costs of an EV. Vdub paid $8K for his EV. After 8 years of you paying for diesel, he'll get an entire car for the same or less money.

turbocharged798 · Jun 25, 2017

Oilerlord said:
We can stipulate that:

- It requires fossil fuels to build any car
- Some grids are cleaner / use more fossil fuels than others
- You can buy a lot of diesel for the cost of an EV battery

Environmentally, you are doing more for Mother Earth driving one fuel efficient car for a long time than the person that leases a new car every 3 years. As I mentioned earlier, the "revolutionaries" tend to ignore the fossil fuels burned (and CO2 released) during the manufacturing process.

However, we all have our own definition of "road warrior". Does 400 miles per week / 20,000 miles per year rule out the use of an EV? For sure, some 80 mile EV's may a problem with that, but a 238 mile Chevy Bolt could easily handle those commutes.

I did mention that the cost of replacement batteries is the "elephant in the room" but while the cost of an EV battery is significant, he and I will likely never replace them. We'll just keep driving our EV's for 8+ years (or longer) and accept degradation in range. We'll probably spend less on electricity in 10 years than you'll spend in 1 year in diesel. I doubt we'll be able to drive 18 years on one battery, but cost wise, it doesn't matter. We'll just buy another cheap, used EV.

Factor in engine-related maintenance costs, and your 18 year old car costs a lot more to operate than our EV's (or our own TDI's) do. I've worked the math six ways from Sunday - no way, no how can any gasoline or diesel car match the low operating costs of an EV. Vdub paid $8K for his EV. After 8 years of you paying for diesel, he'll get an entire car for the same or less money.

So I did the math, a Nissan Leaf is rated for 34KW/HR per 100 miles. Now, we were running about 17 cents a KW/HR here. So if we multiply 34*0.17=$5.78 per 100 miles. I drive 400 miles a week going to work so $5.78*4=$23.12 a week. I am spending around $20 a week now. So where are the savings?

VeeDubTDI · Jun 25, 2017

turbocharged798 said:
So I did the math, a Nissan Leaf is rated for 34KW/HR per 100 miles. Now, we were running about 17 cents a KW/HR here. So if we multiply 34*0.17=$5.78 per 100 miles. I drive 400 miles a week going to work so $5.78*4=$23.12 a week. I am spending around $20 a week now. So where are the savings?

A 2016 LEAF is rated at 107 miles of range on a 30 kWh battery pack, giving it a rated consumption of 3.56 miles per kWh. At 17 cents per kWh, you're looking at 4.78 cents per mile in electricity costs.

Compare to diesel in your area at $2.30 per gallon, a 1999 Jetta TDI rated at 49 MPG highway would just beat that at 4.7 cents per mile in fuel costs. If you're driving in the city and you only get the rated 40 MPG, your cost per mile increases to 5.75 cents. If fuel increases to $3 per gallon, those numbers jump to 6.12 cents and 7.5 cents respectively.

Now, look beyond the raw energy cost per mile to drive. Consider how much less total energy the EV is using. An ALH achieves just about 40% thermal efficiency, with the remaining 60% being turned into waste heat. That heat hangs out in the environment, which, if you're in a city, increases air conditioning loads and costs. Also consider the reduced maintenance costs of an EV - reduced brake wear, fewer routine maintenance items, and in some cases, lower insurance rates.

Finally, many power companies offer several power plans. Some have special rates for EV charging and some offer time-of-use rates with a substantial discount for off-peak use. As I've mentioned, I'm taking advantage of Dominion's time-of-use + demand plan and our electricity bill has gone down even though we are now charging two EVs (roommate bought a 500e, also). All-in including peak usage, off-peak usage and the extra renewable energy rider, last month's bill for 1,505 kWh was $154.

Interesting solar news in your area: http://www.suncommunitynews.com/art...g-expresses-interest-for-proposed-solar-farm/

wxman · Jun 25, 2017

Keep in mind that pollution produced from fossil-fueled electric generation plants is far more subject to long-range transport than emissions from ICE cars.

According to a recent study (Holland et al. (2016), "Are There Environmental Benefits from Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance of Local Factors," American Economic Review, 106(12): 3700-3729, http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20150897), "...91 percent of local pollution damages from driving an electric vehicle are exported to states other than the state in which the vehicle is driven. In contrast, only 19 percent of local pollution damages from driving a gasoline vehicle are exported to other states...." (Page 3702).

Also, note Figure 1 on page 3712 that this results in cumulative damages generally from west to east due to the prevailing boundary-layer westerly winds.

aja8888 · Jun 25, 2017

turbocharged798 said:
Pretty sure the guy is a troll at this point....

When is the club going to have it's first annual EV Fest? Sounds like it's headed that way.

VeeDubTDI · Jun 25, 2017

aja8888 said:
When is the club going to have it's first annual EV Fest? Sounds like it's headed that way.

Good question! To me (and Jason agrees), this new EV niche is very similar to what the TDI niche was some 17+ years ago. It's very familiar in terms of the learning curve, community activism, the focus on efficiency, longevity, and being fun to drive, and much more. I'm very much looking forward to the coming years.

It's interesting to hear people yearn for "the good old days" of TDI. That's exactly what EV segment is right now.

El Dobro · Jun 25, 2017

turbocharged798 said:
So I did the math, a Nissan Leaf is rated for 34KW/HR per 100 miles. Now, we were running about 17 cents a KW/HR here. So if we multiply 34*0.17=$5.78 per 100 miles. I drive 400 miles a week going to work so $5.78*4=$23.12 a week. I am spending around $20 a week now. So where are the savings?

Don't forget to add the use of diesel additives, oil changes, fuel filters and air filters. EVs eliminate these.

turbocharged798 · Jun 25, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
A 2016 LEAF is rated at 107 miles of range on a 30 kWh battery pack, giving it a rated consumption of 3.56 miles per kWh. At 17 cents per kWh, you're looking at 4.78 cents per mile in electricity costs.

Compare to diesel in your area at $2.30 per gallon, a 1999 Jetta TDI rated at 49 MPG highway would just beat that at 4.7 cents per mile in fuel costs. If you're driving in the city and you only get the rated 40 MPG, your cost per mile increases to 5.75 cents. If fuel increases to $3 per gallon, those numbers jump to 6.12 cents and 7.5 cents respectively.

Now, look beyond the raw energy cost per mile to drive. Consider how much less total energy the EV is using. An ALH achieves just about 40% thermal efficiency, with the remaining 60% being turned into waste heat. That heat hangs out in the environment, which, if you're in a city, increases air conditioning loads and costs. Also consider the reduced maintenance costs of an EV - reduced brake wear, fewer routine maintenance items, and in some cases, lower insurance rates.

Finally, many power companies offer several power plans. Some have special rates for EV charging and some offer time-of-use rates with a substantial discount for off-peak use. As I've mentioned, I'm taking advantage of Dominion's time-of-use + demand plan and our electricity bill has gone down even though we are now charging two EVs (roommate bought a 500e, also). All-in including peak usage, off-peak usage and the extra renewable energy rider, last month's bill for 1,505 kWh was $154.

Interesting solar news in your area: http://www.suncommunitynews.com/art...g-expresses-interest-for-proposed-solar-farm/

I do not live in the city and regularly get 50mpg. Most of my commute is 55mph or lower which results in decent fuel economy.

Another point, what is the range hit when winter hits and the heater needs to be run? Waste heat off an ICE is used to heat the cabin, electric vehicles do not have nearly as much waste heat.

Our utility company does not offer off-peak rates, unfortunately.

Like I said, EVs are great for people who don't drive much. For us, it would cost the same, be more of a hassle, and the up front costs would be quite high. We would actually be loosing money over ALHs.

I also would like to see a study of EV efficiency from powerplant to wheel because I suspect efficiency would be much lower, probably closer to 50%. Like I mentioned, line losses can't be ignored especially if there is underground lines where the capacitance losses are even higher.

VeeDubTDI · Jun 25, 2017

The EPA figures account for climate control use (on average). With no climate control on and cruising at 55 MPH, expect a LEAF's efficiency to improve to 4.5 or 5.0 miles per kWh. In the winter, my roommate was seeing as low as 2.8, but he also blasted the heat because he had a short commute and plenty of range.

I'd be curious about the powerplant-to-wheel figures, as well. I think it will end up being quite a bit more efficient than your predicted 50%. I think wxman can probably shed some light on this with GREET models. Another consideration is that an EV allows you to generate clean power locally. The more local the power generation, the lower the line losses will be. If you have rooftop or community solar, losses will be minimal.

aja8888 · Jun 25, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
Good question! To me (and Jason agrees), this new EV niche is very similar to what the TDI niche was some 17+ years ago. It's very familiar in terms of the learning curve, community activism, the focus on efficiency, longevity, and being fun to drive, and much more. I'm very much looking forward to the coming years.
It's interesting to hear people yearn for "the good old days" of TDI. That's exactly what EV segment is right now.

It would be real interesting to have a combined Fest that sponsors both EV and TDI enthusiasts with break out sessions for both technologies, etc. You may even convert some of us non-believers (old school TDI'ers) over to your new EV Darkside in the process.

wxman · Jun 25, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
...I think wxman can probably shed some light on this with GREET models....

According to the latest version of GREET (GREET_2016) and based on the most-recent EIA data for electricity generation mix in the U.S. (March 2016 - March 2017), well-to-pump (to-plug) is 45.5% efficient.

Petroleum-based diesel (ULSD) has a well-to-pump efficiency of 81.2% (gasoline 76.6%).

VeeDubTDI · Jun 25, 2017

wxman said:
According to the latest version of GREET (GREET_2016) and based on the most-recent EIA data for electricity generation mix in the U.S. (March 2016 - March 2017), well-to-pump (to-plug) is 45.5% efficient.
Petroleum-based diesel (ULSD) has a well-to-pump efficiency of 81.2% (gasoline 76.6%).

Interesting! Thanks for that.

So if I'm doing this correctly, I take an 80% efficient EV and multiply it by the 45.5% efficient grid to get 36.4% overall efficiency. If I take a 40% efficient 2017 Prius and multiply it by 76.6% efficient gasoline production, I get 30.6% overall efficiency (a TDI clocks in at about the same).

turbocharged798 · Jun 25, 2017

Is the 80% plug to wheel or battery to wheel? You should use plug to wheel in your calculations...

Oilerlord · Jun 25, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
Another consideration is that an EV allows you to generate clean power locally. The more local the power generation, the lower the line losses will be. If you have rooftop or community solar, losses will be minimal.

Here's ours:

https://easyview.auroravision.net/easyview/index.html?entityId=7466210

Gotta love summer.

CraziFuzzy · Jun 26, 2017

turbobrick240 said:
I plan to add >1000 gallons of insulated thermal storage in my basement when I get a wood gasification boiler. Of course, I will be storing heated rather than cooled water. It will be quite simple to add electric heating elements if I want to store excess heat energy from PV panels at some point.

bhtooefr said:
You've then got borehole thermal energy storage, for heating the ground in the summer with surplus solar (this community actually uses solar thermal panels, not solar electric), and then the stored energy is available for heating in winter.

The key difference between hot thermal storage, and cold thermal storage, is often times, primary sources of heat are not electric, and as such, do not have the peak-time problems the electric grid during cooling seasons in the summer. This is what makes chilled storage such a great potential game changer. The flatter the grid's usage is, the cheaper every single kWh is for every user.

turbobrick240 · Jun 26, 2017

CraziFuzzy said:
The key difference between hot thermal storage, and cold thermal storage, is often times, primary sources of heat are not electric, and as such, do not have the peak-time problems the electric grid during cooling seasons in the summer. This is what makes chilled storage such a great potential game changer. The flatter the grid's usage is, the cheaper every single kWh is for every user.

Both types of thermal storage have great potential. Photovoltaics are a perfect match for a.c. loads because peak supply matches peak demand pretty beautifully.

nicklockard · Jun 26, 2017

CraziFuzzy said:
Lawns make sense if they are going to be used as turf. If they are for decoration, they only belong somewhere where they grow naturally (so-called 'green grass climates' for a reason).
Want to make a pool and efficiency boon instead of an environmental loss? Use it as the condenser on your air conditioning, with a waterfall to control temperature rise. Now you've got an 80°F max condenser temp year round, even when it's 115°F outside. There's a reason larger facilities use cooling towers instead of air coils.
Chemistry control gets more complicated though with the increased evaporation...

I've installed one of these in my home to monitor power consumption patterns and sources of inefficiency.

And I'm running some excel model analysis of my power consumption patterns to see if my home can benefit from an all-solar AC system with the heat being rejected to my pool. Components and systems I'm looking at are here.

Edit to add: I wish I could use ice storage system to use cheaper off-peak power! If I could find a large enough, hyper-insulated bottle to store ice in, it would help; but I'd need about 5+ tons of it. That's a lot of volume.

Oilerlord · Jun 26, 2017

nicklockard said:
I've installed one of these in my home to monitor power consumption patterns and sources of inefficiency.

I hope it works for you.

FWIW, I used their "elite IR" product. It was supposed to read the IR information from the meter, and report it back to a similar desktop receiver that you have. It seldom worked, and when it did, it never gave anything back that was accurate within 100 watts. It mysteriously always gave a consumption reading that ended in "99". In my experience, Efergy's support is non-existent. They never returned any of my calls or emails. Essentially, it was a waste of 150 bucks.

Our power company has since changed our meter to a "smart" unit that transmits meter readings using the zigbee wireless standard. I bought an Rainforest "Eagle" gateway (Amazon: $100) that paired with the meter, and now gives exact, real-time meter readings - and uploads that data to my free wattvision account. Here's a current screenshot:

The Amazon reviews for the Rainforest Eagle are mixed, but mine has worked flawlessly. Have never needed to reboot it. It just works.

nicklockard · Jun 26, 2017

@Oilerlord, it's working well so far. I purchased the two anmeter version because it improves error correction down to <1% precision.

I've walked around turning various devices on and off, and after a time delay of about 3 update cycles (I have mine set to report every 10 seconds the power consumption), it displays accurately. The handheld station seems to display time-averaged power so people don't freak out at every little thing. I can see as little as an 8 watt load from switching my Bosch dish washer in on/standby mode. My ceiling fans consume surprisingly high wattage too.

Having this motivated me to switch out all of our daily-use incandescents to dimmable LED bulbs. This both lowered the power consumption directly and indirectly also since they don't generate nearly as much waste heat that the AC then has to remove. I calculate that I've removed 1700 watts of waste heating by making this switch.

CraziFuzzy · Jun 26, 2017

turbobrick240 said:
Both types of thermal storage have great potential. Photovoltaics are a perfect match for a.c. loads because peak supply matches peak demand pretty beautifully.

Depends on where you're at. Here in SoCal, the PV additions to the grid have helped some, but almost made the situation worse. Most arrays are installed to maximize total generation in the day, but in this climate, that doesn't match the cooling demand. Peak sun is at solar noon, while peak cooling is more typically around 4pm. Some municipalities have started investigating the costs and benefits of incentivizing west facing arrays, which would more accurately mimic cooling loads.

CraziFuzzy · Jun 26, 2017

nicklockard said:
I've installed one of these in my home to monitor power consumption patterns and sources of inefficiency.

And I'm running some excel model analysis of my power consumption patterns to see if my home can benefit from an all-solar AC system with the heat being rejected to my pool. Components and systems I'm looking at are here.

Edit to add: I wish I could use ice storage system to use cheaper off-peak power! If I could find a large enough, hyper-insulated bottle to store ice in, it would help; but I'd need about 5+ tons of it. That's a lot of volume.

Ice storage is far less efficient than chilled water storage, but does have a smaller volume requirement. It takes the heat pump far more energy to cool water down below freezing than it does to cool it to 43°F. Keep in mind, the amount of 'work' a refrigeration system needs to do is dependent on the difference between the evap temp and the condenser temp.

CraziFuzzy · Jun 26, 2017

I have a Rainforest Eagle that I can combine the data from with the data from my solar array's microinverters and get a pretty good indication of my usage patterns. My findings are that even though I live in a hot climate, and have a rather poorly insulated house, my biggest loads when looking at the total cost of electricity for a year, end up being electronics. A full-time server, plus a couple desktops and gaming consoles, plus a few TV's, end up drawing a LOT of power.

turbobrick240 · Jun 26, 2017

CraziFuzzy said:
Depends on where you're at. Here in SoCal, the PV additions to the grid have helped some, but almost made the situation worse. Most arrays are installed to maximize total generation in the day, but in this climate, that doesn't match the cooling demand. Peak sun is at solar noon, while peak cooling is more typically around 4pm. Some municipalities have started investigating the costs and benefits of incentivizing west facing arrays, which would more accurately mimic cooling loads.

You're right. PV production doesn't match peak demand perfectly. West /southwest facing arrays as well as concentrating solar thermal, wind energy, and storage can all help to meet peak demand. Also, superinsulating homes and designing them to keep the heat out (or in) probably gives better returns than anything.

gulfcoastguy · Jun 26, 2017

I don't know, when I replaced my dinosaur of an electric heating and cooling system last November it dropped by electric bill by over 50%. The 17 SEER two stage heat pump costs between 1/3 and one half of what a photovoltaic system would cost me installed. How long would it take to pay for a solar power system when my remaining power bill is less than $100 a month?. New windows will probably be my next purchase.

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